Pro-abortion access measures have popped up in nearly a dozen states this election cycle, and if history is any indicator, they have a good chance of succeeding. But Nebraska has dueling measures on the ballot, showing just how nuanced this issue really is.
When Nebraskans get their ballot in hand, they're going see abortion listed twice. And although initiatives 434 and 439 are close in number, they're not in detail.
That first measure supports legislation already put forward by the Republican legislature and signed into law by its Republican governor. It bans abortion after the first trimester.
"This would essentially just take the law that has been broadly supported and recently enacted and put that in the Constitution," said Kelsey Prichard, the state public affairs director for Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America.
The initiative gives exceptions to medical emergencies, rape and incest and is the one the anti-abortion movement is supporting.
The second measure amends the state's constitution to provide access to abortion until fetal viability, which is at the end of the second trimester around 24 weeks. It also has life of the mother exceptions and very clearly states that it's up to the practitioner to determine viability.
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The language highlights just how polarizing this issue is, stating the patient will be protected "without interference from the state or its political subdivisions."
Allie Berry is the campaign manager for the pro-abortion rights initiative and said their measure garnered 207,000 signatures when just 125,000 were required to get on the ballot.
"We obviously turn in a lot more than we need, which I think just goes to show the support that we have. We also got a signature in every county in Nebraska, and we have 93 counties, so not really a small feat," Berry added.
The competition is stiff. A new ad featuring six Nebraska female athletes supporting the anti-abortion measure is turning up the heat. And a poll by the Midwest Newsroom and Emerson College shows a deadheat between the two measures.
In Scripps News' interviews, both sides accused the other of misleading the public about their respective measure and are concerned about voter confusion. They say it's not just enough to vote yes on the measure they support but that they need to vote no on one that they don't because there's a real possibility they both pass. Then, it becomes a numbers game.
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"A normal ballot initiative, you just have to get above 50% right for something to pass. But with this, it's whoever gets the most votes right, so we need to make sure people are voting on both of them for that reason," Berry explained.
Kelly Hall, the executive director of the Fairness Project, says there could be a long legal road ahead.
"These ballot measures are not identical, except for just a couple of provisions. If they both pass and one gets more votes than the other, it will be a long battle in the courts to figure out exactly which provisions of which end up going into effect. That is not what we want to see happen," she said.
Historically pro-abortion access ballot measures have succeeded in a post-Roe world, including in red states. She says she doesn't think the state is as divided on this issue, but it remains a competitive situation given that it's a presidential election year too.
