With Election Day less than a month away, Democrats' odds of holding on to their slim majority in the Senate appear bleak.
Of the 34 Senate seats up for re-election this year, Democrats are defending 23 of them. The GOP is all but guaranteed to flip West Virginia — the seat being vacated by Sen. Joe Manchin. If Republicans can flip one more, they'll likely have the majority in January.
In Montana, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester was seen as a popular incumbent, but polls have Republican Tim Sheehy in the lead. Experts say the political climate and the strength of his opponent makes this election harder for Tester, who's running for his fourth term in the Senate.
"He's running in a presidential cycle that is increasingly difficult in a state that in 2020 President Trump won by 16 points. Tim Sheehy has been able to put his own money in the race. His profile as a veteran, as a Purple Heart recipient, I think just the political math and the lean of the state, political gravity takes over," said Jessica Taylor, Senate and Governors Editor for The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
In Wisconsin, the race between Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Republican Eric Hovde is now considered a toss-up. Recent polls show Baldwin's lead, which was about seven points, is now within the margin of error.
RELATED STORY | Gunfire damages Democratic campaign office in Arizona
"Wisconsin is probably as close to an evenly divided 50-50 state as we have in the country. So I think this race was probably always going to tighten, and I think what we're seeing is just a nature of Wisconsin elections," explained Taylor.
Arizona may be a bright spot for Democrats as voters choose a replacement for Democrat-turned-independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. Even though the race for president in the state is neck-and-neck, polls show Democratic Rep. Reuben Gallego leading Republican Kari Lake by as many as 13 points.
"Kari Lake is the type of candidate that Republicans had hoped to avoid. She ran for governor in 2022, lost a very close election, but she did lose, and she has refused to concede and has continued to challenge it in court," Taylor said.
The challenging map for Democrats has them looking outside of their typical stomping ground, and Texas might be their best chance to pick up a seat.
"Ted Cruz had a bit of a scare in 2018 against Beto O'Rourke in that race, and he won by less than three points. But there's two things that I think are different in Texas than it was in 2018 — abortion and Cancun," Taylor explained.
Texas has one of the strictest abortion laws in the country, and past elections have repeatedly shown that reproductive rights can motivate voters to show up at the polls. Cruz's Democratic opponent, Rep. Colin Allred, has released multiple campaign ads targeting Cruz's now infamous trip to Cancun while his state struggled with massive power outages from a winter storm.
RELATED STORY | Democrats accuse Coca-Cola, Pepsi and General Mills of 'shrinkflation'
