For decades, New York has been blue — blue for governor, blue in the legislature, blue for the president and pretty blue in its congressional delegation.
A shift in the delegation after the 2022 election has caused some to take a second look at the Empire State in 2024, particularly in the New York City suburbs.
Republicans retained two seats and flipped two districts on Long Island in 2022, giving the party complete control of the island. One member, George Santos, was eventually expelled from Congress and replaced by a Democrat.
The counties in those districts have 125,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans.
"As the House races on Long Island go, so will control of the chamber," said former Nassau County legislator Josh Lafazan
Republican Mike Lawler also beat 10-term incumbent Democratic Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney after she was redistricted in another New York City suburb.
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Those wins helped give Republicans the majority in the House.
Lafazan, a Democrat, was a local legislator in Nassau County for more than a decade, and represented a Republican district.
"Voters here are fiercely independent," he explained, "and they are moderate in localizing their issues, and they don't mind splitting a ticket to pick a candidate."
Both he and Republican Congressman Anthony D'Esposito agree their constituents are heavily impacted by whatever happens in New York City.
"My district specifically probably has the highest amount of cops and firemen that leave this district every single day, risk their life, go into the city. You have people who travel into the city for finance, for education," D'Esposito said.
D'Esposito says his constituents are frustrated with the Democratic policies on criminal justice and immigration. Those concerns were echoed by Democratic voters Scripps News spoke with.
"Issues like illegal immigration certainly tilted the balance, I think significantly. Issues like bail reform, all of these things together, I think, have led to a little reddening of our demographic here," said Neal Monteko.
Monteko and his wife Debra are Democrats hoping President Biden steps aside. They'll vote for him if he doesn't.
"The alternative, to me, is something that is very dangerous to America, and I love America too much to risk it to Donald Trump," Mr. Monteko explained.
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"I don't think that Biden is going to affect the downballot election. I think that people are going to vote locally for the people who they trust," Mrs. Monteko added.
"There is a mixture of emotions, and there is not a uniform consensus here on Long Island about what to do," Lafazan said.
Some, including House Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, think Trump has a shot at the state in November.
"I think it's an uphill battle," D'Esposito said. Still, he thinks it will be a bad year for Democrats in terms of turnout. "I believe that in places that historically turn out record numbers of Democrats, those numbers are going to be diminished."
A much tighter governor's race in 2022 and these congressional flips are giving Republicans hope that even if they don't win this time, the blue stronghold in the state is shrinking.
Despite the momentum right now in his party, D' Esposito says Republicans can't get too comfortable.
"We're at halftime right now, and the score doesn't matter. What needs to matter is what we end up with on — at least in New York — at 9 p.m. on election night," said D'Esposito.
