It goes without saying that voters have been inundated with political polls over the past several months, all attempting to give a snapshot into what will happen when Americans head to the polls on Election Day. And while polls have long been the primary tool used to track where voters stand on certain races and issues, a new non-traditional method of predicting election outcomes has gained in popularity: betting.
Up to this point, betting markets have largely favored former President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris to win the presidential election. As of Monday afternoon, the betting site Kalshi showed Trump getting 55% of bets on him to win and Harris with 45% to be the next president — with over $200 million wagered on the race so far.
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However, those odds are much closer than they were just one week ago when about 70% of the bets were coming in for Trump. James Powel, trending desk reporter with USA Today, pointed to two recent events that he believes may explain the drastic shift in Harris' direction.
"It's the Puerto Rican comments really landing from the Madison Square Garden rally," Powel told Scripps News. "And then our poll, via the Des Moines Register, that showed Harris in the lead in Iowa."
The Trump campaign has been trying to distance itself from backlash over a crude joke made last week by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, who compared Puerto Rico to a "floating island of garbage" while speaking at a Trump rally. And while Powel believes that incident did have a negative impact on Trump, he notes that the betting markets aren't any more or less accurate than traditional political polls in predicting the outcome of an election.
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"There are times where Harris was clearly ahead, there are times now that Trump is clearly ahead. But also these things are not perfect," Powel explained. "They are made by humans, they're made by betting odds. They have missed twice before — notably in 2016 when Trump beat then-Secretary Clinton, who was a heavy favorite."
"So these things aren't perfect," he added. "They give us a sense, they give us a sense of momentum. And if, you know, the odds even in this past week have swung back toward Harris even though Trump has had the lead. But they're not perfect. I just want to make that clear."
You can watch Scripps News' full interview with USA Today trending desk reporter James Powel in the video player above.
