Americans will likely look back at the past week as one that was pivotal in shaping the U.S. economy and remaking the world trade order.
But they'll have to wait to gauge to what extent it changes.
"There's been so much economic news this week, it's hard to get a sense of what's big, what's huge, and what's humongous," said University of Michigan professor of economics and public policy Justin Wolfers.
The new tariffs that President Trump announced on Wednesday, were humongous, Wolfers said.
The new policy applies a 10% base tariff on almost all countries and higher rates for a number of specific countries.
U.S. markets cratered on Thursday and Friday.
JPMorgan analysts raised their recession odds for this year to 60% following the tariff announcement.
"Consumers are miserable, and they're worried about their future," Wolfers said. "So, the possibility of a recession in 2025 has jumped enormously."
Those worries existed even before the latest tariff announcement.
The Conference Board's consumer confidence survey slumped to its lowest level in 12 years last week.
Consumer sentiment surveys like that are what economists refer to as "soft data." But actual statistics — or "hard data" — show an economy that's healthy.
Wolfers says those economic data points have been "pretty good."
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The latest bit of hard data came out Friday, when the Labor Department announced the economy added 228,000 jobs in March, far exceeding expectations.
President Trump posted on social media that the numbers were proof that his policies are "already working."
But those numbers reflect what has happened in the past, not what's going to happen in the future.
"There are two sets of things economists look at: what's happening today and what's going to happen in the future," Wolfers said. "What's happening today is very, very good news. What's happening in the future — people are running around with their hair on fire."
In remarks on Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged "tension" between how consumers are feeling and what the hard data actually says, and he noted how tariffs could impact prices.
"While uncertainty is high and downside risks have risen, the economy is still in a good place," Powell said. "Tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, it is also possible that the effects could be more persistent."
Wolfers said the impact of new policies will be easier to examine in the coming months.
"This is going to be a bit of a very painful waiting game as we wait to see whether the economy can survive this chaos," Wolfer said. "We'll know more, not in a month, but maybe in two or three."
