Election analysts have long predicted the race for the White House could hinge on just a handful of states, but the Democratic momentum behind Vice President Kamala Harris is making some of those battleground states more competitive.
In 2020, seven states were decided by three points or less: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada.
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, says both the Harris and Trump campaigns are focused on the same core battleground states.
"Joe Biden won six of those seven, all but North Carolina, of the key swing states in 2020. Trump won six of those seven states, all but Nevada, in 2016," said Kondik.
Prior to President Joe Biden dropping out, polls showed that Trump was leading in most, if not all, of the seven battlegrounds. But since Harris took over as the Democratic nominee, the forecast models are moving in her favor.
"Nevada very much looked like it was off the table. That's come back into play. Arizona was moving away from them. You know, we've seen her reinvigorate young voters, voters of color, including both Latinos and Black voters, and that has just really sort of changed the map and the math, and now there are multiple paths," explained Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
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Kondik agrees that Harris has done a good job of bringing the Democratic Party together.
"She's done a better job of consolidating the Democratic coalition, and maybe Biden would have eventually got to that point — some of those voters would have maybe come home to him as the campaign progressed. But I think there were also real questions about Biden's ability to do sort of the basics of campaigning, and those aren't questions about Harris," he said.
Democrats want to be competitive in North Carolina, but the state has only gone blue once in the last 40 years — in 2008 for former President Barack Obama. The Cook Political Report updated its ratings on Tuesday. It moved New Hampshire and Minnesota from leans Democrat to likely Democrat, and North Carolina was changed from leans Republican to a toss-up.
Taylor was at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where she heard North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper repeatedly say, "It feels like 2008 all over again."
Republicans seem to be responding to the changes in the race. This week, Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance, have busy campaign schedules, focusing much of their time on the three swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz are doing a bus tour in Georgia, and then Walz is holding events in North Carolina and Maryland.
Of the seven battleground states, Pennsylvania has the highest number of electoral votes up for grabs — 19, which means the Keystone State might hold the key to winning the White House.
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