One word , snow, can create a storm of its own.
Mike Ryan, a Senior Meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Indianapolis with nearly 25 years of forecasting experience, has some thoughts on that. "I'll say this, in my experience and I don't think it's just here in Central Indiana, I think it's anywhere you see snow. Snow is a very highly emotional weather phenomenon."
A strong El Niño forecast this winter gives us an indication of what may be ahead.
Warmer than average water temperatures along the equator in the Pacific Ocean often shifts the polar jet stream to higher latitudes. This often reduces the frequency of cold air blasts across the state. Cold air outbreaks in Indiana are typically more fleeting than long lasting in this pattern.
Jet streams are narrow bands of strong wind, usually around 30,000 feet, that steer storm systems.
The subtropical jet stream frequently delivers storm systems to the southern United States. This pattern favors the potential for severe thunderstorms as well.
Our potential for a "big" snowfall would occur if the two jet streams come together or "phase" over Indiana. Cold air and moisture would meet at the same time. Often though, the coldest air will be separated from the deepest moisture, limiting Hoosier snowfall.
Based on the impact of El Niño, the Climate Prediction Center forecasts warmer than normal temperatures not only in Indiana, but for most of the northern United States. The second and third week of January are the coldest of the winter on average in Central Indiana. The average high hovers around 35 degrees with morning low temperatures around 20 degrees.
The outlook favors below average precipitation in Indiana and the Great Lakes and a wet winter in the southern United States.
If you've lost track, we average 25" of snow in Indianapolis. However, we've been starved of snow the last two winters with just 10 inches each year. Snowfall amounts in Indiana this winter will likely disappoint snow lovers once again. Expect less than 15 inches of snow in Central Indiana.
The last time we were buried in snow was a decade ago. We measured over 55" of snow for the winter. Nearly a foot of that fell on January 5th, 2014.
Ryan knows the challenges of winter forecasting. "As folks here in Central Indiana know, we often have more mixed precipitation events than we care to see. We also can experience ice events and those are challenging events to deal with from an impact standpoint, but from a forecasting standpoint."
Chatter about a POTENTIAL storm often "snowballs" quickly.
"Just because we have one forecast model that shows so much snow 7 or 8 days out, doesn't mean that's what's going to happen. What we as meteorologists have to do as responsible stewards of the data is to take it and acknowledge it but put it in that kind of broad scope of possible outcomes. And the whole goal is as we get closer and closer to an event is to narrow those outcomes to what ends up occurring."
