INDIANAPOLIS — The weather outlooks for February are in. This is the month where not only do we look at forecast models and charts, but also to the groundhog for guidance.
Ok, so maybe we don't rely on whether Punxsutawney Phil does or doesn't see his shadow to build the forecast. That said, we are all still curious as to his prognostication. We do it, if for no other reason, for some hope that the active winter might end sooner than later.
That prediction is exactly what we got from Phil this year. Phil did not see his shadow, which legend says would mean an early spring. He's only made that prediction 18 times out of 122 years. Looking back over the last 10 years, he's been right just 40 percent of the time.
Our warm-up to start February just might have you thinking Phil is on to something. The feeling may not last though.
There are signs that our pattern flips back to a colder trend pretty quickly and may last for much of the month. That balancing act is why the Climate Prediction Center's outlook calls for "equal chances" of above, below or near average temperatures for much of Central Indiana.
Our average high climbs from 37° on the first to 45° by the end of the month.
On the other hand, precipitation is forecasted to come in above average. We expect to stay in the active storm track.
That's much like what we experienced in late January. Early on, much of the precipitation is expected to fall in the form of rain. However, I don't think we're ready to write off our snow for the season in a month that averages 6.5".
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