It's that time of year again! We turn to the groundhog in Pennsylvania to tell us how the next six weeks of weather will go. Will Phil see his shadow and prognosticate six more weeks of winter, or will cloudy skies have the groundhog calling for an early spring? The forecast in Punxsutawney, PA calls for mostly cloudy skies Thursday morning.
Before crossing your fingers that Phil says, "bring on spring" let's look at his track record. Over the last ten years, his "accuracy" sits at just 40%. That's according to the National Weather Service in Pittsburgh. The last time Phil got it right was in 2020 when he predicted an early spring. That year, both February and March came in with above average temperatures. Since then, his record hasn't been all that great.
Regardless of what Phil suggests the future holds, the official outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is leaning in the "early spring" direction. February is already off to a mild start, and that's likely to continue for at least the next couple of weeks. Our average high jumps into the mid 40s by the end of the month.
Following a soggy January, we're expecting to dry things out in February. The outlook calls for below average precipitation. We still average six inches of snow. Unless we get a large winter system, that much snow seems unlikely with the warmer than average trend. Last year, we only recorded a trace of snow.
